Data shows that among the 21 ocean shipping routes in the world, the freight index of 16 ocean shipping routes has increased, while the freight index of only 5 ocean shipping routes has decreased. Among the major ports along the “Maritime Silk Road”, the freight index of 12 ports increased. According to analysis by industry insiders, it is difficult for container shipping prices to drop before September this year.
1) The impact of the epidemic is spreading to the international shipping industry
India is one of the main source countries for seafarers in the world, especially senior seafarers. According to relevant data from the International Chamber of Shipping, there are about 1.647 million seafarers (senior seafarers and ordinary seafarers) on board international trade merchants worldwide, of which about 240,000 are from India. India provides about 15% of the world’s seafaring power and ranks third among countries that provide seafarers to the shipping industry. In addition, the mass infection incident of the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship that received much attention last year, and the incident of the “Longci” freighter stranded on the Suez Canal in March this year, were all Indian crew members. After the second wave of COVID-19 in India, ports in many parts of the world have turned away ships carrying Indian seafarers or passing through India, which indirectly led to shortage of ship spaces and shortage of containers. This means that the impact of the new crown epidemic on global trade is expanding from the initial air transport industry to the international shipping industry.
2) The recovery of foreign trade drives exports.
China’s share of global exports has increased due to the stagnation of production due to overseas outbreaks. Many parts of Europe have rebounded sharply due to the epidemic. Some countries have again taken measures to strengthen control, and the demand for daily necessities and medical materials has increased. In summary, due to the decline in transportation capacity, freight rates have risen. As China’s imports decrease, there is a shortage of containers. Now that the demand in various countries is rising, the supply of containers is in short supply, so the shipping price can only be adjusted again and again.
3) Shipping companies continue to control capacity and plan to make up for losses in the first half of the year.
Shipping companies are constantly controlling capacity. We don’t know if the reason is to make money back from the losses in the first half of the year, but it is true that all shipping companies on Sino-US routes are moving forward and retreating together, and shipping companies are indeed trying their best to overcome the epidemic brought by the epidemic. The difficulties of shipping companies continue to expand shipping capacity, and we also hope to balance the large fluctuations in shipping and avoid systemic risks. At the end of last month and the beginning of this month, we have all the news that shipping companies have ships to join, but we still haven’t seen ocean freight and the market. The balance point of the next step depends on the adjustment of the shipping company’s capacity.
No matter what, the global economy will transition from a low point in the epidemic to a smooth transition. my country’s freight volume will continue to grow irreversibly, and it may return to the level before the epidemic. Therefore, friends who are freight forwarders, must do a protracted battle. Plan. The advantage is the stability of domestic employment and the economy, while the disadvantage is that it may compress the profit margin of the product, making some companies with low gross profit margins unable to continue to bear the cost of shipping by more and more masters.
Post time: May-20-2021